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Home COVID-19 US COVID-19 Era Forecasts and Mortality Model

US COVID-19 Era Forecasts and Mortality Model

Posted on January 26, 2021 Written by Annalyn Frame

Male mortality levels were 10-20% higher in 2020 than 2019 models predicted (female forecasts are similar) (PRNewsfoto/Vesttoo)
Male mortality levels were 10-20% higher in 2020 than 2019 models predicted (female forecasts are similar)

Vesttoo has released its US COVID-19 era mortality version and excess mortality hazard forecast for the forthcoming years. The model, based on historical inhabitants and death counts in the past 80 years, revealed a rise of between 10-20% in mortality rates in 2020 in comparison with the typical historical rates, together with the danger of elevated mortality to continue in the upcoming years.

“Using proprietary AI and machine learning Hazard modeling algorithms, Vesttoo built two stochastic forecasts – one centered on historic data until the end of 2019 (before COVID-19), and the other based on historical data until November 2020, with the 2019 model assigning a probability of 0.5% for the outcomes of 2020,” said Ben Zickel, Chief Technology Officer of Vesttoo.

The increase in mortality rates are obviously seen under when comparing the 2019 model and the November 2020 model, in addition to the effect of COVID-19 on future mortality forecasts, including the current January 2021 third wave of mortality, which as the November 2020 version forecasts has high probability to become worse than the prior waves.

“Our data clearly shows the extent of COVID-19’s devastating Effects on mortality, and the probability that this trend will persist in many years to come. The insurance sector as a whole must brace for years to come by adjusting risk models and funding strategy to fight COVID-19 age stress,” said Yaniv Bertele, CEO of Vesttoo.

In Order to help insurers fight COVID-19 age strain, Vesttoo structures portfolio-specific mortality hedge programs for cedents, along with a wide Industry Loss Warranty (ILW) program, utilizing the forecasts above as the underlying index.

Vesttoo specializes in data-driven risk management solutions to the P&C and L&P markets, using cutting-edge technologies To transfer general insurance, lapse, mortality and longevity risk to the capital markets.

The Company provides insurers and pension funds with affordable, strategic risk move into the capital markets, while investors gain from uncorrelated, high-yield investments using remote reduction possibilities.

As a one-stop-shop alternative provider, Vesttoo handles every aspect of the deal with its cutting-edge proprietary AI and machine learning stochastic algorithms, creating exceptionally accurate risk models and forecasts.

Vesttoo’s Innovative risk-modeling technology transforms how securities are Structured, provided, and exchanged, providing an accessible, flexible, Scalable, and affordable streamlined alternative to traditional reinsurance.

Filed Under: COVID-19

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About Annalyn Frame

Annalyn Frame
Editor-in-Chief, Health Plan News

Annalyn Frame
Editor-in-Chief, Health Plan News

Annalyn Frame is a dedicated registered nurse and accomplished healthcare journalist known for her commitment to promoting accessible and accurate healthcare information. With a unique blend of medical expertise and editorial prowess, Annalyn serves as the Editor-in-Chief of Health Plan News, a leading online platform at the forefront of disseminating essential insights into the ever-evolving landscape of health plans, wellness strategies, and healthcare policy.

Professional Background:
Annalyn's journey in healthcare began as a passionate registered nurse, where she honed her clinical skills and developed a deep understanding of patient care. Her experience in various healthcare settings, ranging from bustling urban hospitals to rural community clinics, has given her a comprehensive perspective on the challenges and opportunities within the industry.

Driven by her desire to bridge the gap between medical knowledge and public awareness, Annalyn transitioned into healthcare journalism. Her keen ability to dissect complex medical concepts and translate them into easily digestible content quickly set her apart as a prominent voice in the field. Her articles, renowned for their clarity and accuracy, have empowered individuals to make informed decisions about their health and well-being.

Editorial Leadership:
As the Editor-in-Chief of Health Plan News, Annalyn Frame brings her healthcare expertise to the forefront. Under her guidance, the publication has become a trusted resource for professionals and consumers alike, offering timely updates on health insurance trends, legislative changes, cost-saving strategies, and innovative healthcare solutions. Annalyn's commitment to journalistic integrity ensures that readers receive information that is not only up-to-date but also reliable, enabling them to navigate the complexities of healthcare with confidence.

Advocacy and Impact:
Beyond her role as an editor, Annalyn remains a staunch advocate for accessible healthcare and health literacy. She frequently participates in community health workshops, seminars, and public speaking engagements, where she empowers individuals with the knowledge they need to take charge of their health. Annalyn's dedication to improving healthcare access extends to her volunteer work with underserved populations, where she leverages her nursing background to provide hands-on care and education.

Education:
Annalyn Frame holds a Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BSN) degree from a respected institution. Her academic foundation, coupled with her hands-on experience, allows her to offer a well-rounded perspective on healthcare matters.

Annalyn Frame's dynamic blend of nursing expertise and editorial leadership has made her a driving force in both healthcare and journalism circles. Her unwavering commitment to delivering accurate, approachable healthcare information through her role as Editor-in-Chief of Health Plan News underscores her mission to empower individuals and promote positive change within the healthcare industry.

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